MW, its funny that you say that about inflation....
I don't have time to write it all out here, but long story short is that I have changed my mind and think that all of the excess credit in the system, that historically transmitted to consumer prices much quicker, will not actually ever push up prices. Instead, I believe we are going to go thru a major deflationary recession. Buy your bonds boys! Gordon and I just finished updating the Fed Funds model (email me if you would like it) and the market isn't discounting that much of a slowdown. Three cuts by June 2008? Not enough for us, we are buying June 2007 Eurodollar calls currently, implied FF is 4.90%, I am thinking it will be alot lower by then....Bernanke fears Deflation like the people on the movie "Snakes on a Plane" fear snakes on their plane.
I will post with my entire thought process later. How is everyone doing?
I will post with my entire thought process later. How is everyone doing?
posted by Not Sure if Al Gore or Global Warming is a Bigger Joke at
6:33 AM
7 Comments:
What did I actually say about inflation? I just said the article was interesting and Gresyon posted the article. However I see your post came in at 4:30AM! Dude what the hell are you doing up at that point. I hope that is 4:30AM central so its only 5:30 for you but still....take it ease...:)
I would be interested in your model and I will send you my more rudimentary model. ritzema@wisc.edu
This made my decade.
Whose CPI numbers are we going to use for deflation? Pre or Post George H.W. Bush?
You are a regular John friggin' Kerry. BTW, are the board members still idiots?
Ah, we love ya for it.
"I will post with my entire thought process later."
Just try to keep it under 15 pages this time.
3 bullet points please on why it will be a major deflationary recession (as opposed to a minor disinflationary slowdown etc.). 3 bullet points only with each bullet point confined to 1 sentence.
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