Another question....
I have the uncontrollable urge to go long Countrywide with call options. I keep having the lingering suspicion that maybe I am an idiot and the MSRs have a lot of value because they do generate fees when people miss payments. And that the credit profile is not that bad because they do have low LTVs even though people are not paying either interest or princp.
The bottom line is that I guess I have no clue. That is obvious.
I cannot go long for obvious reasons. I was pretty sure that this was a zero. The MSRs are worth zero. The option arm portfolio will be horrendous with 88% of loans essentially PIKing. The re-insurance (PMI) portfolio could wipe them out. Tangelo Leatherface is a f-ing idiot. People keep diluting equity by "bailing" them out.
It is disturbing that both Bill Miller and Mason Hawkins continue to buy. I called Legg today and they would not talk to me. I guess I am a shitty analyst. Maybe speculation and gambling are just taking hold of my reason.
Does anyone have an opinion on Countrywide or an understanding of servicing portfolio past a general knowledge?
The bottom line is that I guess I have no clue. That is obvious.
I cannot go long for obvious reasons. I was pretty sure that this was a zero. The MSRs are worth zero. The option arm portfolio will be horrendous with 88% of loans essentially PIKing. The re-insurance (PMI) portfolio could wipe them out. Tangelo Leatherface is a f-ing idiot. People keep diluting equity by "bailing" them out.
It is disturbing that both Bill Miller and Mason Hawkins continue to buy. I called Legg today and they would not talk to me. I guess I am a shitty analyst. Maybe speculation and gambling are just taking hold of my reason.
Does anyone have an opinion on Countrywide or an understanding of servicing portfolio past a general knowledge?
posted by MattKelly54 at
4:21 PM
6 Comments:
This comment has been removed by the author.
You're beyond my knowlege base. I stick to what I know...BS comparisons to 1929 and ancient Rome.
The deeper into the rabbit hole I go, I realize that most analysts don't have one fucking clue as to how to analyze a financial. Or a cyclical for that matter.
Well, after 2000-2004 we know they cant cover tech, telecom, healthcare or utilites. Does that leave staples?
mattkelly54, nice timing on CFC calls. wherever you get the these premonitions, keep them coming.
That was not a real call, just an admission that I have no clue. It bothers me that Bill Miller is still long. Although, he was long before. And he was long Enron before.
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