David Rosenberg is a Douche
I made the mistake of going to see David Rosenberg, the Merrill Lynch economist. After he was done telling us how his views were “non-consensus” even though his views were basically that housing is bad and getting worse, the consumer is over levered, the US will go into a slowdown; actually a recession, and the Fed will cut rates. Yeah, you are really different from all your peers. What really pissed me off and why he is an ass is when I questioned him why he doesn’t see inflation as a risk. Me: I don’t understand why you don’t see inflation becoming a problem when several companies continue to raise prices from casual dinners, cig companies, airline manufactures etc. etc. McDonalds stated that the cost of cheese increased 13% and 20% over the two pervious quarters. Rosenberg: why should the Fed be concerned about the cost of cheese, is McDonalds bigger than Walmart. Me: well no (shit head). Rosenberg: Walmat is cutting prices and listen the PCE deflator is at the lowest level since the 60’s. Me: yeah and they don’t calculate inflation the same way as the 60’s or even the same as they did during the 90’s. Rosenberg: yeah and the S&P is calculated different and there are different companies included in the S&P so are we not suppose to look at historical data. Me: what does that have to do with anything. This is the point when I wanted to get up and walk out. This guy could not comprehend how inflation continues to push through the system. Another fuc**** talking head that is fine with the FED depreciating the paper that sits in our wallet. When I suggested that the FED not cut rates I was looked at as Judas. That would only punish the consumers paying more for those McDonalds cheeseburgers. Ah, well no the FED destroying the dollar is punishing those consumers. What an as*. And he was so proud to refer to himself as an out of consensus guy. Screw him……I need a drink.
posted by blog_name at
8:11 PM
8 Comments:
That is the best thing I have ever read. Now Jim Rogers is a second. Good god. I need something like this every night.
Good work. One thing to consider is that labor costs were the largest part of inflation, but as commodities keep on their parabolic trajectory I would think that is changing. I am not sure how unemployment remains so low, yet wages are not going through the roof. I suggest that will change as our currency continues to get trashed.
I agree with blog 100%. He's a cocksucker... so much so that I don't even bother to show up at his meetings any more. And I am the only guy from high yield who doesn't go. I even generally agree with his premise. Shit is bad and getting worse. But I do disagree that the idea that stagflation can't exist is a farce. Prices don't automatically go down, especially if international demand and a fucked up dollar are at least part of what is driving them high.
As far as the non-consensus view... what does that even fucking mean, Rosie? Who walks around and says anything other than that? "Yeah, I basically add no value. I think the same as everyone else does." Give me a break, shithead. To be fair, Malpass is just as fucking bad.
I find most of the sell-side to be an absolute waste of ivy league educations. My apologies to anybody who works on the sell-side.
At least fucking come out and tell me what the position is that you are talking. Either yours, your firm's, whatever.
Anyone ever talk to an anlyst that didn't like his firm's IPO? Or that did like his rival firm's IPO? Me either.
Oh yeah, and you can cuss on the blog. I'll allow it.
Reminds me of a situation I had with ISI several years ago. Nancy Lazar was hosting a luncheon in Milwaukee in April 1999. There were, briefly, big inflation fears then and big expectations the Fed might have to raise rates substantially by the end of the year. So anyway, they poll the lunch attendees - if you saw who was at this lunch you instantly know to ingore their manager surveys when they publish them - any everyone put down their forecast for the the dow, 10-year, and whatever else. Anyway I had both the yield on the 10 year rising and the market increasing. So she's going through the results and gets to mine and just rips it apart as being inconsistent - an impossible outcome - because there was no way the market was going to rise if bond yields were rising. I was pretty green at the time but jeez. Anyway, my 2 cent forecast was wrong. Amazingly I actually nailed the 10 year to within 1bp. However, I was way off on the market, it was up way more than I would have ever imagined... Fuck you Nancy.
Cheap therapy. Cheaper than a beer and a hell of a lot cheaper than a shrink. Not as much fun as beer though.
One more bad word on Malpass and I am bringing guns to Kansas City.
Nothing against Malpass as he was right for a long, long time.
But he's a perma-bull... just as Rosie is a perma-bear. Neither one of these guys is saying anything new from what they were saying 24 months ago. I'm sure Malpass will be saying things aren't that bad when the line to the food kitchen wraps around the corner.
They like to think that they're really special and all, but the reality is that they probably aren't. Malpass is a master at attacking a strawman, though.
Typical Q&A with Malpass
Questioner- Asks perfectly legitimate question about housing crumbling and the dollar going with it.
Malpass- Let me restate your question such that it is not really what you initially asked and instead conforms to one of my already canned answers. Remember to ask, "Is that what you're saying?"
Questioner- "No, what I said was..." restate original question.
Malpass- repeat prior step. "Is that what you're saying?"
Questioner- In defeat, agree that's what you were saying.
Malpass- Destroy strawman.
Well, Malpass got us all Bs in ASAP. Without him we would have all gotten Cs. Except for you Doug, you would have still gotten an A.
I wonder if there is some sort of research you can do to hedge commodities with treasury prices. You would think that if oil was near $10 8 years ago, and gold was near $240 8 years ago that you would have seen some widening of the US treasury. But that has not happened yet. And I understand the demand for treasuries and all that garbage, but that is really the thing right. If there is inflation higher than 5%, the real return on Treasuries is very negative.
How does one profit from the signal that commoities are sending us from the bond market? Is it short treasuries, or short commodities?
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