AAPL
A while back Jeff Matthews made the point in one of his posts that the biggest winner in the release of Windows Vista would be Apple. We are shopping for a new home computer and, after spending an hour at the Apple kiosk in a Best Buy, are almost certain to get a Mac. I wanted to compare Macs to Vista - never even got over to look at the PC's. The only Apple product I have owned previously is the Nano. However, now that they can run Windows on their systems, why buy a shitty Microsoft product? If my experience is representative any broader consumer group, AAPL might be picking up some market share in the next year or two - if it hasnt already. I dont follow the stock closely so this could be well reflected in the price or it might be all Iphone hype. Either way, this might be a longer term thesis that can be played a number of ways. And yes, I will probably sell my MSFT shares now.
posted by Odoacer at
9:16 AM
22 Comments:
Correct me if I am wrong, but if you run Windows on a Mac, you're still owning the shitty MSFT product (the OS), no?
You can run both operating systems simultaneously. So if you need to do work at home and it involves using excel, you can do it while still using Mac for everything else. If you're Matt Wokasch and you want to play Warcraft and if they dont have a Mac version, you can run it on Windows. But for everything else such as email, multimedia, internet you can use Mac.
The biggest hurdle for me previously was so many software applications were not usable on Macs. No longer the issue it once was. I have heard it is not optimal for people who have software that demands high performance. You might not want to use Factset on it for example - I dont know just speculating. But most people are not running software like that at home. And if they are usually it is a corporate computer.
My opinion is that Macs are for the upper crust who think that they are better than everyone else.
I think that if I bought an Apple I would have no clue how to use it. I am sure you can do so much more on an Apple, but really all you need on a computer is:
Internet poker
porn
Excel and word
An illegal music download program
a web browser
Windows has all that.
Yeah, but windows security is so bad you have no idea what you are inviting on your computer if you look at porn.
You may get pop up porn for all eternity.
I hate apple. I hate apple. I hate apple.
Who the fuck thinks that its ok to not have the right click button?
How fucking bad is excel on Apple?
How gay do apple computers look?
How hard is it to navigate the internet?
GAY GAY GAY. If you answered any or all of the above correctly you also came to the conclusion that APPLE should give up on the computer biz and concentrate on the phone, ipod, i TV, online digital media businesses b/c it lost the pc battle to michael dell and bill gates.
Silver, you need to become comfortable with your sexuality. But I agree. I question el cid's sexuality after he buys a Mac. I knew that marriage was a sham. And come on that Mac guy, he has to be a switch hitter.
For starters, I agree with every single one of silver's points. That said, I think there could still be opportunity for AAPL in the PC area, but I'd like to see a total change in strategy. Like maybe making a computer that normal people want to use.
AAPL lost this battle to Gates and Dell, who are now getting beaten up by Schmidt and Hurd. There is a lot of turnover in this business and I feel like AAPL could add a lot of value, but they're too fucking stubborn to realize that only snobby technogeeks have an interest in their, to me, unusable product.
That said, iTunes is now the #3 music retailer in the country with a 10% share, trailing Wal-Mart at 16% and Best Buy at 14%. They leapfrogged Target and Amazon this quarter.
Couple of follow up points to support my initial thesis.
1) Matt's points about the use of a computer are valid for single males under 35. For women and families, there are additional uses and maybe a little less poker and porn.
2) The new Macs have the CPU embedded in the moniter - no box to go with it. It is actually pretty cool. Dont like the mouse, get a traditional one. They cost about $20, not a big deal.
3) MSFT won the PC battle in the 80's because they had an open distribution model vs. Apple's closed distribution. Now that the compatibility issues are irrelevant, so is the distribution issue. The new version of Office cannot be opened by old versions meaning if I wanted to work from home on a Vista running machine and send a document to work it wouldnt open. What are the goofballs in Redmond thinking?
4) I have not seen Excel on an Apple. If it really sucks, I am interested to know.
5) Apple has a market share in home computers of something like 5%. It only takes a small fraction of Windows users to switch to have a big impact. If 5% switch, Apple's sales double. Hell, a 1% switch is 20% volume growth.
6) My experience is obviously not representative of the broad spectrum. My point simply is I was planning to buy a PC last fall, decided to wait to upgrade to Vista, and now, despite never ever having previously considered buying an Apple, am almost assured to buy one within the next month. Maybe it says more about MSFT than AAPL. Interpret it anyway you want but when a loyal customer drops you that easily after waiting for your new product, it isnt a very positive data point for Microsoft and could be very positive for AAPL.
Put me down for my hatred of AAPL, anyone else thinks that the iPhone largely disapoints out of the gate. 1) because I assume (don't know for sure) that the expectations will be fairly large just given its names and 2) who is buying the $500 - $600 phone with $90 service fees? I don't think people will be trading in the blackberry's for these phones. I'm sure the argunment is that they are going after a different customer, which I can buy into. But I would then say that customer currently has a cell phone that was probably given for free or you paid $50-$100. True that cell phone functionality is not like the iPhone but something tells me to beware. I degress, the computer is GAY!
El Cid, could you warp through time and give me this information when Apple was trading at a split adjusted 5.
So, white monitors with embedded CPU's are gay. Good to know. How about black cars or navy suits? Has anyone actually looked at what I am talking about!?!?! I am not referring to those goofy looking monitors they introduced 5 years ago or whenever. Its a freaking white monitor. And someone tell me when I said to buy the stock at here.
navy suits....definitely unless they have pinstripes of course. So what's your target price on AAPL
Cid's not ready to put a buy on AAPL... maybe just an accumulate.
Just make sure that if you decide that you hate it, you suspend coverage. Wouldn't want to jeopardize the i-banking business.
My target is 1000. Considering my brother in law is going to buy it. My old roomate from Cali is going to buy it, and the d bag that sits next to me is going to buy it. And the guy from Wisconsin who wants a job pitched it to me. And of course, it is one of Cramer's four hoursemen.
Apple stock is a short.
1) Iphone will disappoint huge expectations.
2) I pod is now close to fully saturated and replacement cycle will slow due to weaker consumer spending on high ticket items and cannibalization from i phone.
3) I tv will fail. All my discussions with Hollywood studio chiefs and major players in media seem to have no interest in video going the same route as music.
4) Content for i tunes for video will continue to be only from disney and will result in other platforms taking share from itunes media center.
I can elaborate if anyone wants details, but this is abbreviated Inv. Thesis.
BB
P.S. apple is gay
I agree with Mr. Silver's points and propose you change your name to Hollywood.
I never said to buy aapl and I never, never expressed an opinion about Iphone, Ipod, or Itv. The only rec I made was sell MSFT (Thanks again for the buy rec Matt), which if I get the time to battle compliance, I will.
My initial post was strictly a personal observation to be used or ignored however you wish.
So you rate it a 2-outperform?
So what your saying is that you are heterosexual, yet have homo tendencies, a metro sexual if you will. And you are basically a unich for not having a real position on Apple. Does that sum it up?
Just kidding Cid, calm down.
"All my discussions with Hollywood studio chiefs and major players in media seem to have no interest in video going the same route as music."
Too f-in bad. It's going to happen regardless of whether they like it or not...and if they try to fight it they will, in fact, wind up just like the music industry.
As to the PC thing, what computer you run won't matter in 10 years when everything you do is run via Google's internet.
I do not know if that is a really a bad thing. I think music will find the way. Content is still King and will still be very valuable. Look at ring tones, and the Violater liscensing deal that Warner just struck. In the movie industry: product placement (GM in transformers) and the viral marketing campaign for films like Saw and Blair Witch.
Power laws still apply in content. The more people that know and hear and like a song the more it is worth in future revenue. Same with movies. They have a long tail revenue stream, and I think it will be monetized.
I agree...content is still valuable. My point (not directly stated in my comment) is that the movie industry should embrace the digital world and figure it out, rather than fight it.
Although, I do agree with the analysts out there who believe that much of the value is moving from content to getting to that content, which is where goog (and myspace, facebook, etc) has created so much value. Blockbuster content is hard to create, and doesn't last very long. Navigation has a much better moat.
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home