Back in Action
Sorry for my 1 month sebattacle (sp?) fellas; appreciate the calls and posts of concern about my well being though.
Thoughts on Markets: Things are now officially out of control. I sat in meeting when Schartzman came in to sell equity of his firm for upcoming IPO and thought in the middle of the meeting that this may be looked back on as the top....I mean fucking P/E firms are going public now? Hedge funds (fortress) are doing IPOs that are are 25x oversubscribed and are looking like horrible deals for everyone except couple people who got IPO shares and the owners that cashed out and got permanent financing. Funny thing is that tax man is going to spoil it for these guys...although the fact that Stevey boy is only going to be worth $6 billion vs. $7.5bn really doesn't seem like something to shed a tear over though.
I mean is it me or does this seem like the biggest house of cards in history? Guys in public markets funding other guys doing the exact same thing that they are doing? Seems like circular logic to me, I mean the only difference between P/E shops and us is that they have better data and can slap on huge debt and charge more fees. I really don't think these guys are that good, but rather are just a function of the most ludicrous credit market in history. My buddy at Walton St. (real estate p/e firm about the size of vornado) told me that the spreads and cap rates that deals are being done at make him sick. Did any read how HSBC sold their london tower to a REIT at a 3.9% cap rate?!?$%$? I mean when did real estate look cheap at a 25x multiple?
I am going to now reiterate the position that I so colorfully took a little over a year ago when I predicted stagflation and much higher rates. Btw, on the ASAP transition, I hope they retain Ray Zemon b/c he was most valuable part of the program (in addition to mello and howard) - truthfully. I shorted ED$ in February when the fed took the bias language out of the press release and then the ED$ market proceeded to price in 6! cuts in by June '08. Now there is only a 50% chance of one cut by that period...that trade alone paid off grad school.
Anyways, I have a detailed piece I will put on the blog in a couple days after I finish a couple notes that I have been putting off for my current employer. Hope all is well.
P.S. MW the value investing congress was not that great, but did get a good idea about a vietnamese beer company that could be huge stock. Vietnam in general is great place to put capital right now.
Thoughts on Markets: Things are now officially out of control. I sat in meeting when Schartzman came in to sell equity of his firm for upcoming IPO and thought in the middle of the meeting that this may be looked back on as the top....I mean fucking P/E firms are going public now? Hedge funds (fortress) are doing IPOs that are are 25x oversubscribed and are looking like horrible deals for everyone except couple people who got IPO shares and the owners that cashed out and got permanent financing. Funny thing is that tax man is going to spoil it for these guys...although the fact that Stevey boy is only going to be worth $6 billion vs. $7.5bn really doesn't seem like something to shed a tear over though.
I mean is it me or does this seem like the biggest house of cards in history? Guys in public markets funding other guys doing the exact same thing that they are doing? Seems like circular logic to me, I mean the only difference between P/E shops and us is that they have better data and can slap on huge debt and charge more fees. I really don't think these guys are that good, but rather are just a function of the most ludicrous credit market in history. My buddy at Walton St. (real estate p/e firm about the size of vornado) told me that the spreads and cap rates that deals are being done at make him sick. Did any read how HSBC sold their london tower to a REIT at a 3.9% cap rate?!?$%$? I mean when did real estate look cheap at a 25x multiple?
I am going to now reiterate the position that I so colorfully took a little over a year ago when I predicted stagflation and much higher rates. Btw, on the ASAP transition, I hope they retain Ray Zemon b/c he was most valuable part of the program (in addition to mello and howard) - truthfully. I shorted ED$ in February when the fed took the bias language out of the press release and then the ED$ market proceeded to price in 6! cuts in by June '08. Now there is only a 50% chance of one cut by that period...that trade alone paid off grad school.
Anyways, I have a detailed piece I will put on the blog in a couple days after I finish a couple notes that I have been putting off for my current employer. Hope all is well.
P.S. MW the value investing congress was not that great, but did get a good idea about a vietnamese beer company that could be huge stock. Vietnam in general is great place to put capital right now.
posted by Not Sure if Al Gore or Global Warming is a Bigger Joke at
8:52 PM
4 Comments:
I was going to ask about the ED trade. I knew that had to work out well.
I do not agree staying long interest rate however. Interest rates have been in a trading range, and I was wrong at the bottom, and I would caution about being wrong at the top.
Funny I have this great tip on a vietnamese massage palor, not sure this will help your PA but.....
blog_name,
My favorite place in Overland Park got shut down. Didn't you read about the massive sting?
That sucks. I was involved in a crack down in 2001. I though handjobs were legal.
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