Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Long Austrailia, Short Canada

I am going long AUD and short CAD as I expect AUD to continue to pay down debt and increase its trade balance as Uranium demand continues to accelerate and put Austrailia at a relatively more favorable position given that they have all the commodities that Canada does except for oil sands and lumber - one that they are glad they don't have right now. Uranium is the second biggest bull market of our lifetimes behind water in my opinion. India is running at 60% capacity in its nuclear capacitors b/c it can't get enough uranium and must decide whether or not to increase imports, Russia is importing uranium even though the country has more than it needs - THIS IS REALLY BULLISH AS IT IMPLIES THEY ARE BUILDING A STRATEGIC RESERVE AND ARE LOOKING OUT TO ITS FUTURE VALUE RATHER THAN SPOT, China has stated its going to increase its Nuclear GWh to 55 from 18 currently, which will triple its demand, the US Nuclear Reactor Group just reported it has received 32 applications for new nuclear reactors - the largest ever by 21 for one year.

Uranium miners are a buy, Austrailia is a buy, Canada is a pair trade given that its currency has appreciated so much and will likely limit imports in coming two years.

If anyone is interested in specific names let me know....i am a subscriber to the Dines Letter and he outlines good names to be in by market cap and risk profile. I invest in uranium miners using a venture capital approach where I invest equally in ten names to diversify out the idiosyncratic risk as my call is really just on the price of Uranium.


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