Friday, February 09, 2007

Ironic (even monkeys win awards)

I just saw Alan Greenspan on CNBC winning a award on their first award show. I find it amusing that they are giving this monkey an award smack dab in the middle of a melt down in housing. I remember during the first bubble pop, the market went down every day. It was serious, but in hind sight it needed to happen. There was really no reason for companies to be valued as they were. No one really knew what Enron even did. If you read the annual report, they did not even know. The first sentence of MDA was "It is hard to describe what Enron actually does. It was bound to happen. FF to now. Describe to me what New Century does. What is their competitive advantage? There are 20 companies that do the exact same thing. Why is Fremont in business when they basically are the underwriters of horrible loans. Why does the Street give them a warehouse. Why does the ABX accept them in their index. At least I understand that Countrywide has built some scale. I understand to some extent why they exist, even though I would hedge my bets that they are around for 4 more years like Bush.

Anyways, my man Fleck has been saying that in the future we will look at A.G. as the worst central banker ever. I agree. The put that he seemingly gave the market, was basically a housing bubble. And his chickens are roosting as he accepted his award. The level of home ownership may be at it's highest level ever, but is that really something to be proud of? That just makes more of our country house poor. And when your house poor and times are tough, you lose your house. Thats the way it works. No questions asked. No Greenspan put can stop that. Thank god I got into this mess before it went down. I am still a buyer of CFC CDS, and puts on all the rest of the space. Here is a hint: Take a look at LEND. It is 18 times levered. I am not sure I fully grasp this, but their securitizations are still on BS. If that means that they still hold the loans. This is going to poof really quick. Anyone that is familiar with the covenants on their warehouse, and knows this space please e-mail me at mattkelly54@gmail.com.

1 Comments:

Blogger MattKelly54 said...

It is hard to believe that this was actually said, but alas it was. Bill, why are you a genius:

A singer of subprime's praises
Lastly, I would like to share a quote from Easy Al, taken from a speech dated April 8, 2005 (not so very far from the zenith of the real-estate market). I don't talk much about Al Greenspan anymore, mostly because he's gone from the scene, and I spilled so much ink on him before he left. But if you had to pick one man responsible for the imbalances in America and the financial hangover coming our way, it would be Al, who said:

"Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. . . . With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. . . . Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending . . . fostering constructive innovation that is both responsive to market demand and beneficial to consumers."

I would imagine that if consumers who took Al's advice could, they would be lining up to sue him for malpractice. There's one class-action suit I'd be happy to join.

12:25 PM  

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