Chinese Markets...
Does anyone have a view on the chinese market? Record highs, time to go short???
posted by Wind22 at
3:17 PM
Thursday, May 10, 2007
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12 Comments:
You need to go back and look at charts of the internet bubble and realize that record highs can continue to be set for a long time.
Chinese market is NOT, and I repeat, IS NOT, going down prior to the olympics. The BoC will take a cue from the US PPT and infuse liquidity when the market dries up.
I am short your short china idea.
I think China has zero competitive advantage.
I'm short it.
Everyone thought Wokash was an idiot. Now he is laughing all the way to the bank.
The9.com is in the 40s.
I have to side with Silver with regards to China and the olympics. Relative to the US, they put a lot of importance on appearances and symbolism. I think they view the Olympics as their coming out party as a Global power. Unless someone has another catalyst in mind (credit issues, general flight from emerging markets etc), I would stay out of the way of that freight train. It might wreck after after the Olympics but before then? In honor of the Oracle's recent party in Omaha, that is a pitch I wouldnt swing at from either side of the plate.
But what this does mean, is that US treasuries could likely be shorts as the money that has been supporting treasuries may be going less back into the US and more into the chinese market.
I think 10yr bond is a massive short.
I'll take the treasury and I'll give you whatever Venzuala's bonds are denominated in. You can also keep your renimbi.
Go ahead. Short China. I double-dog dare you. Better yet, take all your money and buy the longest-term puts on a Shanghai stock index you can find.
One benefit I got from going through ASAP is that it rid me of the idea that investors have to follow certain defined conventions such as value investing or growth investing, blah, blah, blah. That is not to say they dont exist but rather their are limits to the applicabilities of these generalizations.
Using that as a backdrop, Rich, you are one of the biggest momentum investors I have ever seen. I dont know if you are still clinging to the value definition like you did a couple of years ago or not. Doesnt matter. You are pure mo. I hope you got a job at Janus, Fred Alger or one of the many growth shops around. You will be outstanding there. I mean that in all genuine sincerity.
I think everyone's right. China is going higher in the interim. Or at least it isn't going down.
I don't see a competitive advantage in China either. When costs get to high there, companies will shift production to Vietnam, Korea, the Philipines, South America, Africa, the moon, or wherever else.
Greg is right, Rich you are momentum. Doug you are right in that China won't go down in near term but will in LT.
One tidbit I heard when I was out in LA last week talking to a guy who was in Bejing a week earlier. He told me that Bejing is so dirty you can't even see the tops of buildings and that as a result they are going to SHUT DOWN the entire city for 2 to 3 months prior to the olympics. This seems like something that will support short thesis in quarter right after summer olympics.
LT, I think India is better as it has 1) better education system, 2) is democratic and not communist, 3) honors its commitments unlike china who just allows companies to invest and then materially alters terms to their advantage half way in as a fucking bum would, 4) THEY SPEAK ENGLISH!!!
I am not necessarily long india quite yet, but as a relative bet I would take them in a 5yr horizon over china.
I agree with fresh also that their only competitive advantage is huge labor resources, which is abundant elsewhere in the world like India and Africa. Only thing is that they will have major investment head start in terms of capital in place, but there is alot of money in the world looking for high ROI projects so this is but a ST advantage.
Only one bullish counter on China; if the world really goes after this global environment clean up it may not be eager to just bust into new countries and destroy their environments - especially in Africa w/ the rainforests there. However, this is hardly an investment counter point just something to keep in mind; maybe every one will just look to china as our dump that makes everything?
Jerry what do you think of that idea?
for the record, i definitely backed Wokash on the9.com. i even bought some of it for a while. Wokash knows ballet class and video games.
Maybe I am pure momentum. I'm still just getting to know myself. I know I'm not deep value very often (once in a while I guess)
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